NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

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NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

Postby Rogobob77 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:48 pm

NBCsports.com Horizon League preview projects a 4th place finish for the Titans:

1. Oakland
2. Northern Kentucky
3. UIC
4. Detroit
5. Wright State
6. Youngstown State
7. Green Bay
8. Cleveland State
9. Milwaukee
10. IUPUI

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/ ... e-preview/
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Re: NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

Postby Commissioner » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:36 am

I didn't feel like starting a new thread, but this site, called 3 Man Weave, has a very detailed preview of the Horizon. They've got the Titans finishing 4th, with Allen and Jaleel on the second team all-conference. http://three-man-weave.com/3mw/2017/10/ ... ew-2017-18. They were tied last year for the second most accurate prediction (out of 17 that I found) of the HL finish.

I'm collecting all the previews in chart form here: http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net ... mary-chart
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Re: NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

Postby ptctitan » Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:20 am

Interesting about Three-Man-Weave's analysis.

1. Its HL All-Newcomer team consist of 3 redshirt seniors including our Prince; but does not include our Chatman. I wonder if redshirt or graduate seniors ought to be eligible for this team.

2. Our Titans are called a dark horse pick to win the HL championship, but with a huge caveat about our need to improve defensively.

3. Its pick of Oakland as #1 assumes no Brock.
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Re: NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

Postby NC Titan » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:37 am

Commissioner wrote:I didn't feel like starting a new thread, but this site, called 3 Man Weave, has a very detailed preview of the Horizon. They've got the Titans finishing 4th, with Allen and Jaleel on the second team all-conference. http://three-man-weave.com/3mw/2017/10/ ... ew-2017-18. They were tied last year for the second most accurate prediction (out of 17 that I found) of the HL finish.

I'm collecting all the previews in chart form here: http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net ... mary-chart


Commish, your matrix has a few notes that JJ Jr. will be the top freshman. Do you expect he will get enough playing time to be the best freshman in the conference?
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Re: NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

Postby Commissioner » Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:56 pm

NC Titan wrote:
Commissioner wrote:I didn't feel like starting a new thread, but this site, called 3 Man Weave, has a very detailed preview of the Horizon. They've got the Titans finishing 4th, with Allen and Jaleel on the second team all-conference. http://three-man-weave.com/3mw/2017/10/ ... ew-2017-18. They were tied last year for the second most accurate prediction (out of 17 that I found) of the HL finish.

I'm collecting all the previews in chart form here: http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net ... mary-chart


Commish, your matrix has a few notes that JJ Jr. will be the top freshman. Do you expect he will get enough playing time to be the best freshman in the conference?

Depends in part on whether he's good enough to be the top freshman, right? If he's that good, they oughta find the minutes.

The Titans have 4 scholarship guards on the roster: McFolley, Allen, Black, and Triple J. Last year McFolley averaged 29 minutes per game, Allen 31, Black 17. (Additionally, Jarod Williams averaged 21 and Patrick Robinson 14, though Robinson only appeared in 25 games. That's over 100 minutes per game at guard, but that's because Williams frequently, and Allen occasionally, played the #3 spot). Because all four of this year's guards can play the point, Bacari has the maximum number of options in configuring the backcourt at any point in time.

I assume Jackson eats pretty deeply into Black's minutes (if he can't do that, he certainly won't be Freshman of the Year). Unlike last year, when we often used a three guard lineup featuring Jarod Williams, I doubt that we'll see all three of McFolley, Allen, and JJJ on the floor at the same time very often. That lineup would be awfully small. (Williams had 5-6 inches on JJJ and had become a pretty good rebounder by last season.) Plus, it looks like we have a lot more depth in the front court this year, so the third guard option won't always look as relatively attractive. We'll see it on occasion, with Corey as the small forward, but not as much as last year.

So basically I think JJJ is probably slotted for about 20 minutes per game, with Black's time dropping way down. With reasonably production, 20 minutes per game may be All-Freshman team territory, but probably not FOY. To get the latter, he's simply gotta be good enough to eat into McFolley's and Allen's minutes, or be so good that the very small lineup with all 3 guards is still a good option for us.

Note that the idea of reducing pt for McFolley and Allen--two good players--is a positive problem to have, especially if Bacari has everyone thinking team first. When players the caliber of McFolley and Allen have their time cut in a Horizon League team backcourt, that's a darn good backcourt for this league. But if we lose a bunch of games early (very possible, with a difficult non-conference schedule) and people start bitching about minutes, it could get interesting in a bad way (and having JJJ's father on the bench adds another complication in that situation).
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Re: NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

Postby NC Titan » Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:19 pm

Thanks, Commish. Let's not forget that our roster (and many magazines) also includes Chatman as a guard. ;)
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Re: NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

Postby titandave » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:25 pm

NC Titan wrote:Thanks, Commish. Let's not forget that our roster (and many magazines) also includes Chatman as a guard. ;)

More often than not; I believe we'll see McFolley, Allen, and Chatman on floor at the same time with Chatman on the wing.
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Re: NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

Postby Commissioner » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:02 pm

A couple more previews out:

College Basketball Central (which bills itself as "The Voice of Mid-Major Hoops" and is run by Kevin Sweeney, who does seem very knowledgeable) and Sports Action, a betting site (so they have a market incentive to get it right) are both out with detailed Horizon predictions, and both put the same top 4 in order: Oakland, Northern Kentucky, UIC, and Detroit. That seems to be the growing consensus--the last 5 predictions out, including the Horizon League Poll, have gone in that order. Both of these last two seem to like Detroit's upside. CBB Central calls us the "dark horse," and "incredibly dangerous." Sports Action says "the Titans have arguably the highest ceiling in the league," which is pretty remarkable because everyone seems to agree that OU's ceiling is Sweet 16 high.

Full breakdown of preseason predictions in two handy charts here http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net ... mary-chart
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Re: NBC Sports Horizon League Preview

Postby Rogobob77 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:53 pm

Pretty good up-to-date analysis from “Always March,” their top four teams are 1) Oakland, 2) UIC, 3) Northern Kentucky, and 4) Detroit:

https://alwaysmarch.wordpress.com/2017/ ... e-preview/
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