Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby titanmike » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:57 am

Titans96 wrote:
ptctitan wrote:Case closed with another immature response. Grow up.


PTC, I think you need to chill out. What do you expect everyone to do, follow you blindly into the fire? Everyone knows this is a disaster, so what is wrong with bringing some levity to the party?

The Titans actually played pretty well today without their best player. Well done Titans.

The sad part is we couldn’t beat a terribly playing NKU team. It shouldn’t surprise anyone however, it’s not like we are a top tier team. And just imagine, all those mascots couldn’t motivate either team to play well or bring fans to the game. Go figure. A side bar, it seems our neighbors up north aren’t having a problem getting fans to their game.

Just accept the fact that it is time to clean house with the entire athletic department and basketball program. This season is toast - no .500 team this year in either hoops program.


A side bar that team up north isn't winning very much either. At least 7x the enrollment, a game against the first place competition, and an Oakland team that was expected to vie for the title. Come on.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby ptctitan » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:08 am

udballer wrote:I gotta ask? Is your favorite movie "Moneyball"? Too many handpicked statistics and not enough eyeballs, in my opinion.


Hoosiers is my favorite sports movie. Your eyeballs can deceive. Statistics do not lie. They also identify trends within a macro picture. In my long experience in business and competing in high level amateur sports, the macro picture often distorts or obscures the underlying emerging trend.

I analyze business performance for a living. I had many people tell me that I would never succeed in this business. I had many other people tell me that I was doing things wrong. That I was looking at the wrong statistics. In business, I want to know what is likely to occur - I already know the bad stuff that has already occurred. Also, I made a lot of mistakes along the way. It took me 3 -4 years to become successful.

In competitive sports, I went through a similar change in process to become a highly competitive senior amateur. It took 2.5 years before my macro results improved. During that time, I had many well-meaning people tell me that I would not succeed. They analyzed my performance the same way that you and others analyze BA. They told me that my coach was crazy, incompetent, ignorant. I experienced many frustrating months of below expectations results. These people got very adamant in my second year of the process. My coach kept telling me to trust the process. He analyzed my performance statistics for micro-trends that you call handpicked statistics. I listened to my coach, trusted his process, worked on what the stats were telling me, and became a successful amateur for several years until I decided to cut back. This is why I trust statistics over your eyeballs to show me what is likely to occur in the near future.

You and others here tend to exhibit confirmation bias. You see what confirms your opinion and do not see what contradicts your opinion. Not you so much as others here. This is a corollary to the law of attraction that tacitus mocks in some of his posts about Bacari. Example, some are so focused upon JJJ's play, that they do not see the play of others because they are focused upon him making a mistake in order to confirm their opinion about him and his father. I don't care what JJ did in the past in high school. I don't care how Bacari was viewed by others here when he was a young, new assistant.

Finally, lurking behind all of this is the one-year turnaround by Ray in his second year here. He accomplished it with JUCO's and transfers. Things appeared good on the surface until October 2012. Then, the cracks appeared and the program declined because there was no long term plan. It was an annual ad hoc plan.

Yesterday, I saw a maximum effort from my Titans. Execution was spotty. A lot needs to improve. But everyone of those players left their hearts and souls on the floor. I was proud of their effort. You should be, too.

To get better, sometimes you have to take a few steps back before you can move even farther forward. Also, most often, success does not occur in a linear manner. The second year in any strategic plan is most often the most frustrating. But I see positive signs.
Last edited by ptctitan on Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby titanmike » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:10 am

Motor City Sam wrote:People who keep bringing up Coach Ray as some mitigating factor in the results of the last season and a half = too many of you.
People who try to push the narrative that Coach Ray only had success here when his son was on the team = too many of you.
People who ignore what Coach Ray did at Ball State = too many of you.

I'd be happy to never have to discuss Ray in a current game thread again, but it's not the people who supported him who keep bringing him up. The present state of the Titans isn't pretty, but that's where the focus should be.


See Tacitus post above.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Tacitus651 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:25 am

Image

Yesterday, I saw a maximum effort from my Titans!
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Commissioner » Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:30 am

Tacitus651 wrote:Image

Yesterday, I saw a maximum effort from my Titans!

Of course, this ("I saw a maximum effort") isn't "Moneyball" -- it's substituting the "eyeball test" for stats, the antithesis of "Moneyball." An overlooked part of the movie is that there is room for both--as when Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt) unceremoniously dumps Jeremy Giambi because of his lack of effort and dedication, even though Giambi was one of his first pick-ups based on the "Moneyball" concept. "Moneyball" -- the concept, not the movie or book-- is just an effort to better and more systematically understand what helps a team win on the field (or court), and to use that knowledge to win games. To do that, it makes extensive use of statistics, which a) are merely the real time recordings of events on the field of play, i.e. about 90% of "the eyeball test," but systematically recorded and analyzed, and b) provide common measurements for evaluating what what takes place on the floor.

The real messages of "Moneyball," now that we have the ability to record so many more stats, and the knowledge of how to use them: Woe to the person who writes off statistical analysis; and, though most things that make for a winner will show up in the stats (you just have to know where to look and how to use them), there is a matter of heart, and woe to the person who doesn't also realize that the game is not just stats.

That said, it's my belief that generally the things that make someone a winner will show up in the stats, though if forced to choose, I'd rather be 24-8 with great stats and no heart or effort than 11-20 with poor stats and great heart and effort. But rarely do you get that kind of dichotomy.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby udballer » Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:47 am

ptctitan wrote:
udballer wrote:I gotta ask? Is your favorite movie "Moneyball"? Too many handpicked statistics and not enough eyeballs, in my opinion.


Hoosiers is my favorite sports movie. Your eyeballs can deceive. Statistics do not lie. They also identify trends within a macro picture. In my long experience in business and competing in high level amateur sports, the macro picture often distorts or obscures the underlying emerging trend.

I analyze business performance for a living. I had many people tell me that I would never succeed in this business. I had many other people tell me that I was doing things wrong. That I was looking at the wrong statistics. In business, I want to know what is likely to occur - I already know the bad stuff that has already occurred. Also, I made a lot of mistakes along the way. It took me 3 -4 years to become successful.

In competitive sports, I went through a similar change in process to become a highly competitive senior amateur. It took 2.5 years before my macro results improved. During that time, I had many well-meaning people tell me that I would not succeed. They analyzed my performance the same way that you and others analyze BA. They told me that my coach was crazy, incompetent, ignorant. I experienced many frustrating months of below expectations results. These people got very adamant in my second year of the process. My coach kept telling me to trust the process. He analyzed my performance statistics for micro-trends that you call handpicked statistics. I listened to my coach, trusted his process, worked on what the stats were telling me, and became a successful amateur for several years until I decided to cut back. This is why I trust statistics over your eyeballs to show me what is likely to occur in the near future.

You and others here tend to exhibit confirmation bias. You see what confirms your opinion and do not see what contradicts your opinion. Not you so much as others here. This is a corollary to the law of attraction that tacitus mocks in some of his posts about Bacari. Example, some are so focused upon JJJ's play, that they do not see the play of others because they are focused upon him making a mistake in order to confirm their opinion about him and his father. I don't care what JJ did in the past in high school. I don't care how Bacari was viewed by others here when he was a young, new assistant.

Finally, lurking behind all of this is the one-year turnaround by Ray in his second year here. He accomplished it with JUCO's and transfers. Things appeared good on the surface until October 2012. Then, the cracks appeared and the program declined because there was no long term plan. It was an annual ad hoc plan.

Yesterday, I saw a maximum effort from my Titans. Execution was spotty. A lot needs to improve. But everyone of those players left their hearts and souls on the floor. I was proud of their effort. You should be, too.

To get better, sometimes you have to take a few steps back before you can move even farther forward. Also, most often, success does not occur in a linear manner. The second year in any strategic plan is most often the most frustrating. But I see positive signs.


I don't question their effort from yesterday... and I've said as much. I quoted that I thought the team played very hard. As for the statistics...

You seem to be stating that the statistic that matters... is that during Va Tech and BA's absence, the Titans were giving up 92.5 ppg and since his return they are giving up 82.88 ppg? How did you arrive at that being the critical stat to show team progress under BA? You consistently bring up statistics as "proof" of progress, but I'm wondering why you didn't point out that during those first 8 games the Titans were averaging 91 ppg themselves, and since his return just 73 ppg? Does that mean that the offense has majorly regressed under BA's watch? I don't believe so... though the same statistic would certainly point that way.

Or why not mention that the Titans were -1.5 ppg in scoring margin vs. their first 8 opponents, and since his return they are -10 ppg? I've seen you reference similar stats before when it suited your statements.

In the end, we've held an opponent (any opponent) below 80 points only 3 times this season... which is awful. Two of those games were during that first 8 game stretch (before the "turnaround"). We have yet to play a single opponent twice this season... so it all gets mixed in with the fact that the stats are generated against completely different teams... so there is no baseline. If the Titans move through the first half of the HL season giving up 83ppg, and then only give up 79ppg on the backside on the conference schedule, then you may have something. As of this moment, you simply appear to be citing a random statistic in support of BA.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby udballer » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:11 am

ptctitan wrote:Finally, lurking behind all of this is the one-year turnaround by Ray in his second year here. He accomplished it with JUCO's and transfers. Things appeared good on the surface until October 2012. Then, the cracks appeared and the program declined because there was no long term plan. It was an annual ad hoc plan.


Additionally, I don't see calling this out as a knock against Ray and something (potentially) positive for BA. Ray did what many coaches do to get the program up and running quickly by utilizing JUCO's and transfers. Combining that with some in-home talent that was coming up, he managed to bring some level of success to the program. In the end, that success was not sustained and I was in support of going another direction.

What has BA done differently at this point? I see the primary contributors on this team being Ray recruits (Corey, Josh & Jaleel), JUCO's (Tariiq, Dre), transfers (Chatman, Prince) and some in-home talent (JJJ). The primary difference between the two being that we are currently on an 11 game losing streak in year 2... as opposed to watching a winning season... and the Horizon is worse now than it was then.

Unless you see something significant coming up based on the additions of Long, Eichler, Ollie, Joubert, etc... BA appears to be behind his predecessor.

Now, if he installs a system in which we become a lock-down defensive team, that would probably win me over. However, we are approaching 50 games deep and just now attempting to cite 9-game trends in defensive improvement. That's a bit scary.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Motor City Sam » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:39 pm

udballer wrote:
ptctitan wrote:Finally, lurking behind all of this is the one-year turnaround by Ray in his second year here. He accomplished it with JUCO's and transfers. Things appeared good on the surface until October 2012. Then, the cracks appeared and the program declined because there was no long term plan. It was an annual ad hoc plan.


Additionally, I don't see calling this out as a knock against Ray and something (potentially) positive for BA. Ray did what many coaches do to get the program up and running quickly by utilizing JUCO's and transfers. Combining that with some in-home talent that was coming up, he managed to bring some level of success to the program. In the end, that success was not sustained and I was in support of going another direction.

What has BA done differently at this point? I see the primary contributors on this team being Ray recruits (Corey, Josh & Jaleel), JUCO's (Tariiq, Dre), transfers (Chatman, Prince) and some in-home talent (JJJ). The primary difference between the two being that we are currently on an 11 game losing streak in year 2... as opposed to watching a winning season... and the Horizon is worse now than it was then.

Unless you see something significant coming up based on the additions of Long, Eichler, Ollie, Joubert, etc... BA appears to be behind his predecessor.

Now, if he installs a system in which we become a lock-down defensive team, that would probably win me over. However, we are approaching 50 games deep and just now attempting to cite 9-game trends in defensive improvement. That's a bit scary.


Irony: The guy accusing others of confirmation bias negatively cites the previous coach using JUCOs and transfers while apparently overlooking the current coach's reliance on JUCOs and transfers while achieving worse results.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Tacitus651 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:32 pm

I don't think baller was criticizing Ray for using JUCOs and transfers, he was merely pointing out that many new coaches employ that strategy with the hope it will elevate the status of the program so that tradition students sign senior year of HS. Ray kept going back to the JUCO/transfer well because he had some instate talent become available. Ray would have been stupid to not take JH2, Jenkins, and the same can be said for Brundidge. His earlier teams with Minnerath, Anderson, others were just super athletic and while is sucks we didn't get those guys for 4 years, they got the job done. All that said, Ray was a bit slow out of the blocks when it came to recruiting HS players. He took a big gamble on Bass and it showed some dividends until it blew up in his face. He got Hogan. He eventually got McFolley, Blackshear and Allen. Perhaps Ray's downfall was not being able to mentor Bass to straighten up and fly right. I think all of us would be curious to know what's going on in the parallel universe where Ray wasn't fired and how he'd coach Hogan as a senior, McFolley as a junior and Allen as a sophomore. There's some foundation to a team like that. Maybe there's even a parallel universe where Bass got his act together and is a senior.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Motor City Sam » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:58 pm

Tacitus651 wrote:I don't think baller was criticizing Ray for using JUCOs and transfers, he was merely pointing out that many new coaches employ that strategy with the hope it will elevate the status of the program so that tradition students sign senior year of HS. Ray kept going back to the JUCO/transfer well because he had some instate talent become available. Ray would have been stupid to not take JH2, Jenkins, and the same can be said for Brundidge. His earlier teams with Minnerath, Anderson, others were just super athletic and while is sucks we didn't get those guys for 4 years, they got the job done. All that said, Ray was a bit slow out of the blocks when it came to recruiting HS players. He took a big gamble on Bass and it showed some dividends until it blew up in his face. He got Hogan. He eventually got McFolley, Blackshear and Allen. Perhaps Ray's downfall was not being able to mentor Bass to straighten up and fly right. I think all of us would be curious to know what's going on in the parallel universe where Ray wasn't fired and how he'd coach Hogan as a senior, McFolley as a junior and Allen as a sophomore. There's some foundation to a team like that. Maybe there's even a parallel universe where Bass got his act together and is a senior.


Baller wasn't the subject of my comment. I was actually agreeing with what Baller said in response to PCT.

Baller, if that wasn't clear, I apologize.

Most programs in the country recruit from all avenues. JUCOs, transfers, high schools, foreign, etc. Even blue bloods like MSU, Duke, and UNC take transfers. I've never thought that U of D would be able to reach the highest level just recruiting high school kids.

I think being down two coaches for a while during that sex scandal hurt recruiting for a while. Seems like when they brought in Coach Payne and Ernie Z we started hitting on highly ranked high school kids like AFS, Hogan, Josh, Gerald, and Corey. I was looking forward to that going forward. I agree it would be interesting to see that parallel universe where Ray didn't get fired and would be coaching those guys and whoever else he might have gotten in the classes of 2016 and 2017.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby JDetroitTitan » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:40 pm

Tacitus651 wrote: I think all of us would be curious to know what's going on in the parallel universe where Ray wasn't fired and how he'd coach Hogan as a senior, McFolley as a junior and Allen as a sophomore. There's some foundation to a team like that. Maybe there's even a parallel universe where Bass got his act together and is a senior.



Let me remind everyone that Ray had a 0.487 win record for the Horizon league and a 0.470 record over all at UD. He had only 2 maybe 3 good season when his son was playing. I do like the players Ray was getting to play for UD but coaching I don't see any difference.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby udballer » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:44 pm

I got it, Sam. No worries. I wasn't expecting that was directed toward me. :)

I agree that there is no telling the true impact the scandal had on recruiting.

For the record, my ONLY issue with Ray revolved solely around defense. The other team was consistently left open behind the arc and all too often it looked like layup lines to the hoop for the opposition. I was of the opinion that any hire could have done better than that defensively... which I'm second guessing at this point in time. In my opinion, to be truly successful as a mid-major a team needs to be dominant on the defensive side of the ball.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Motor City Sam » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:19 pm

JDetroitTitan wrote:
Tacitus651 wrote: I think all of us would be curious to know what's going on in the parallel universe where Ray wasn't fired and how he'd coach Hogan as a senior, McFolley as a junior and Allen as a sophomore. There's some foundation to a team like that. Maybe there's even a parallel universe where Bass got his act together and is a senior.



Let me remind everyone that Ray had a 0.487 win record for the Horizon league and a 0.470 record over all at UD. He had only 2 maybe 3 good season when his son was playing. I do like the players Ray was getting to play for UD but coaching I don't see any difference.


Let's also remind people that Ray won twenty games in his second season before his son arrived. Let's remember that he was here for eight seasons and five of them were winning seasons, despite the low point the program was in when he took over. Let's remember that we've made six NCAA tournaments in our history and one of them was under Ray. Let's remember we've made seven NITs in our history and one was under Ray. No one is saying he was Tom Izzo, but the attempts by many to denigrate his tenure got old a long time ago.

If you don't see the difference in "coaching" between Ray and BA, which includes everything the head coach is responsible for, then I don't know what to tell you.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Tacitus651 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:42 pm

Yup, and lets also remind people that Ray was battling in a MUCH better Horizon League. He was playing Valpo and Butler. Bacardi is playing oo-ee-pooh-ee.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Motor City Sam » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:22 pm

Some thoughts on the game itself:

It wasn't a well played game, but it was exciting. Both teams missed easy opportunities for points. The sequence where the Norse missed two open layups on one fast break was symbolic of what kind of game it was. The overall shooting percentages, 33 percent for NKU and 34 percent for the Titans, told the story.

I thought the Titans showed good effort and kept fighting throughout.

With Hogan and Prince playing a lot, the Titans have to get to the line more than 11 times. Especially on a day when the field goals aren't falling.

Brought my niece and nephew to the game and they both had a great time. They were chosen to take part in some of the halftime festivities with the mascots and enjoyed themselves. The University staff was friendly and cordial. My niece Jaida, the nine year old point guard, said to me during the game, "Detroit isn't passing the ball enough. Too much dribbling." At the end of the game, the three of us got a lot of TV time in a crowd shot. :-)

It was good to see some of the message board crew: RogoBob, Titan Ben, UP. My niece and nephew were glad to meet some of my friends.

There is no way there was close to 1,000 people in attendance.

Overall, the game felt like a lost opportunity to get a win against a good team. I think they caught NKU on a letdown after the OU game. The chance was there.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby TitanBen » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:54 pm

Never thought I'd need to research movies and get a statistic's degree to follow these threads. :lol:
I hope we start winning soon, the threads were a lot simpler. GO TITANS!!!!!
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby MooseGuy1 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:59 pm

:lol: From the mouths of babes...

Taking nothing away from Jaida, I'm sure she's precocious, but when a 9 year old recognizes poor ball movement you really have to wonder what goes on in team meetinhgs and practices.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby MotownTitan » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:33 am

Motor City Sam wrote:Let's also remind people that Ray won twenty games in his second season before his son arrived. Let's remember that he was here for eight seasons and five of them were winning seasons, despite the low point the program was in when he took over. Let's remember that we've made six NCAA tournaments in our history and one of them was under Ray. Let's remember we've made seven NITs in our history and one was under Ray. No one is saying he was Tom Izzo, but the attempts by many to denigrate his tenure got old a long time ago.

If you don't see the difference in "coaching" between Ray and BA, which includes everything the head coach is responsible for, then I don't know what to tell you.


If we are going to remind people, get your facts straight.

-He was here for 8 seasons, he only had 3 winning seasons ( I refuse to acknowledge those 'real games' against non D1 teams).

"Everything the head coach is responsible for"?
How about the academic suspensions of Bass, AFS, and Gibson? along with Hogan's blocked transfer because he was academically behind?

The coach can't be fully responsible for his players, but he should get them all the help they need to pass classes. Having 4 players in one year, shows a complete lack of academic support from the coaches.

Finally, look at his record while here literally a bell shaped curve that did peak when his son was here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_McCallum

They may have made a bad hire with BA, but anyone who cares about success is smart enough to know that Ray had to go.
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Commissioner » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:41 am

MotownTitan wrote:
Motor City Sam wrote:Let's also remind people that Ray won twenty games in his second season before his son arrived. Let's remember that he was here for eight seasons and five of them were winning seasons, despite the low point the program was in when he took over. Let's remember that we've made six NCAA tournaments in our history and one of them was under Ray. Let's remember we've made seven NITs in our history and one was under Ray. No one is saying he was Tom Izzo, but the attempts by many to denigrate his tenure got old a long time ago.

If you don't see the difference in "coaching" between Ray and BA, which includes everything the head coach is responsible for, then I don't know what to tell you.


If we are going to remind people, get your facts straight.

-He was here for 8 seasons, he only had 3 winning seasons ( I refuse to acknowledge those 'real games' against non D1 teams).


This is kind of funny, a post that begins "gets your facts straight," and then begins by immediately saying "I'm refuse to acknowledge the facts because they don't support my point."
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Re: Northern Kentucky Preview and Game Thread

Postby Motor City Sam » Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:39 am

Commissioner wrote:
MotownTitan wrote:
Motor City Sam wrote:Let's also remind people that Ray won twenty games in his second season before his son arrived. Let's remember that he was here for eight seasons and five of them were winning seasons, despite the low point the program was in when he took over. Let's remember that we've made six NCAA tournaments in our history and one of them was under Ray. Let's remember we've made seven NITs in our history and one was under Ray. No one is saying he was Tom Izzo, but the attempts by many to denigrate his tenure got old a long time ago.

If you don't see the difference in "coaching" between Ray and BA, which includes everything the head coach is responsible for, then I don't know what to tell you.


If we are going to remind people, get your facts straight.

-He was here for 8 seasons, he only had 3 winning seasons ( I refuse to acknowledge those 'real games' against non D1 teams).


This is kind of funny, a post that begins "gets your facts straight," and then begins by immediately saying "I'm refuse to acknowledge the facts because they don't support my point."


Commissioner, that's why I never respond to that clown.
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