The point guard poll

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Which point guard would you like to be the starter

JJJr (look for the future)
7
30%
Josh Mcfolly (try win now)
16
70%
Black
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 23

Re: The point guard poll

Postby JDetroitTitan » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:20 am

ptctitan wrote:JDetroit - I agree that Malik should get more minutes.

With Hogan and the Joneses unavailable, our options are now much more limited. Playing Josh more minutes than JJJr at PG will not change the gaping hole on the front line and will not increase offensive efficiency sufficiently to make any difference in the outcomes in any future games. Josh's history says that he will turn the ball over more times than JJJr. IMO, that will offset any gains from "better defense" and shooting - whatever those terms mean. Nor was Josh ever bashful about taking shots from downtown. Josh should play significant minutes. Just not most of them at PG.


Ok PTC since you like stats let look at JJJR to Josh. I am going to last year for Josh since the minutes of play time is the closest and also Josh hasn't changes his style of play or developed anything new in his arsenal. Also by look at his stats each individually per year you can see that the minutes do play a role in his production on the offense side. This year minutes are closer to his freshman year and his stats are very similar beside is 3P production going down 0.03% but you can see a direct correlation when he is shooting the ball more an increase in production. It appears his sweet spot is 6 to 7 shots beyond the arc and 10 to 11 shots and you get a 7.5~7.3% increase of production . Look at JJJR shots vs Josh (year 2 because the shot attempts are the closest make a better comparison). JJR is 12.9% less then Mcfolly for field goals and 11.2% from the arc. But the bigger picture is those shots are being taking away from Corey and Chatman. If you look they are 26.7-18.5% more productive beyond the arc and about the same for FG. All those close games we lost. I would take a bet that at least half of those would be won with this stat. If you look at Chatman production beyond the arc is the reason why I believe he should be the SF and this is his best shot at being able to make it to the next level at this position.

Josh Stats
SEASON TEAM MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
2017-18 DET 23.3 2.9-7.9 .367 1.3-4.4 .304 2.4-3.0 .794 2.0 1.4 0.0 1.3 2.8 1.4 9.5
2016-17 DET 29.3 4.4-10.7 .408 2.3-6.3 .366 2.8-3.5 .813 2.2 3.0 0.1 2.0 2.8 2.7 13.8
2015-16 DET 21.9 2.8-7.3 .377 1.4-4.2 .339 1.6-2.4 .662 1.5 2.3 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.5 8.5

JJJR stats
SEASON TEAM MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
2017-18 DET 32.3 4.0-11.2 .362 2.3-7.0 .329 2.1-2.4 .880 3.2 3.1 0.1 1.2 2.3 2.0 12.5

Chatman
SEASON TEAM MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P%
2017-18 DET 32.2 6.3-13.0 .483 2.2-4.9 .449

Cory
2017-18 DET 31.0 5.6-12.3 .457 2.3-5.7 .404
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby JDetroitTitan » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:22 am

O yeah does any of those 6 people want to change there vote now.
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby Tacitus651 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:36 am

Look, if Josh wanted to start as PG then he should have been the son of a coach. Enough said.
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby udballer » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:50 am

Tacitus651 wrote:Look, if Josh wanted to start as PG then he should have been the son of a coach. Enough said.


:lol:
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby udballer » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:52 am

TitanONeill wrote:JJJr, because this season is a wash to me. Need to start looking forward.


Um... but Josh is also on the team again next year. At least, I hope he is. Who knows whether that will be the case based on the way this year is playing out.
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby JDetroitTitan » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:04 pm

udballer wrote:
TitanONeill wrote:JJJr, because this season is a wash to me. Need to start looking forward.


Um... but Josh is also on the team again next year. At least, I hope he is. Who knows whether that will be the case based on the way this year is playing out.


Also this season isn't a wash. I hate to tell you but this season rides all on the Metro tournament to get in the NCAA tournament. The season doesn't mean anything but positioning. We have time to right are error. That kind of excuses is for losers TitanONeill. BA it time to see if you are just a good salesman or a coach
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby Titans96 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:33 pm

ptc,

Again your stats are wrong, or you at least left out the total truth. You are fake news.

As of Jan 23 - 2018/2017 here are the RPI’s:

Wright 79/138
NKY 104/189
Oak 146/132
Milw 236/276
UIC 251/231
Det 292/267
EIEIO 306/224
YSU 316/250
CSU 334/215
GB 338/148

HL Avg 240/207
16% worse than last year.
Bottom 31.5% of NCAA D1 Schools
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby StJoeUofD » Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:55 pm

Although my Mother never understood basketball, even though we lived in Indiana, I think she had the answer. Whenever I asked her for ice cream and she said no, I would try different experiments to "make" my own ice cream. At some point in my experiments, she would always say, "one day, Dear, you will figure out that you need cream to make ice cream"

What we have is a team without a Point Guard. When we accept that fact, we will have a chance of solving the problem. Unless someone steps forward who agrees to stop doing what they like to do and only wants to run the offense and make everyone better by feeding them, we don't have a chance. Right now we are just putting guys in the PG position to fill it. In business and in life this is always a bad strategy. My suggestion is that we scrap the traditional PG-SG-SF-PF-C formula and identify what we actually have, a SG-SG-SF-SF-SF offense. Minimize the number of minutes any one person has to play at the feeding the offense and let them play more in the positions that they like. Since virtually everyone turns the ball over more than they make assists, what does it matter who the point guard is. I am not a basketball historian, but if I was a coach, I would be scouring the internet to see if anyone else had an offense like that and was successful.
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby ptctitan » Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:26 pm

96 - you made the following general statement that again has been copied exactly from your post.

Titans96 wrote:Also, we are still losing at the same rate as last year against worse teams.


The fact that the composite HL RPI is lower than it was in 2017 does not mean that the individual RPI of each team in the league is lower. Wright State, NKY, and Milwaukee have better RPI's today than one year ago today. They are not worse teams than last year.

Against teams that are worse this year than last year, we have beaten YSU and CSU at home, lost to OU at home, and lost to IUPUI and GB on the road. We are 2-2 vs HL teams with lower RPI's than us and 0-4 against HL teams with higher RPI's than us. Although the league as a whole has a lower RPI, so far this year, we are not losing at the same rate as last year against worse teams.

If by your words "at the same rate", you mean by the same point differential, your statement is not accurate. If by your words "at the same rate," you mean that after our first 8 HL games, last year we were 2-6 and this year, we are also 2-6, then that first part of your statement is accurate. The second half of your statement is not accurate because 3 of the 6 HL losses this year have come against teams that have better RPI's this year than last year. If by your words "at the same rate," you mean the full season, then your statement is not accurate because we have two more wins this year than last year after 21 games played.

Perhaps if you had explained what you meant by your words "at the same rate" and "worse teams," I would have understood what you meant from the outset.

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Re: The point guard poll

Postby ptctitan » Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:00 pm

JDetroitTitans - in your statistical model of putative W's, what adjustments have you made for the fact that as of this point in the schedule, the 2016-17 Josh would have 5 less assists and 15 more turnovers than the 2017-18 Jermaine Jr?

If Josh shot at the same rate per minutes played as he did in 2016-17 and played the same minutes this year as Jackson has played, then Josh would have taken 11 more shots this year than Jackson has taken. If he made 3 point shots and 2 point shots in the same distribution this season as last season, he would have scored 31 more points after 21 games as have been scored by Jackson this year for an additional 1.5 points per game from Josh on more shots taken.

In a perfectly linear model, the 2016-17 Josh would also have 60 assists and 57 turnovers vs Jackson's 65 assists and 42 turnovers after 21 games.

So, the 2016-17 Josh playing this year would take 11 more shots away from Corey and Kam than Jackson has taken this year. He would have scored 31 more points than Jackson, less the number of points lost from 15 more turnovers and 5 less assists. The five less assists are likely worth 12 points with 40% of our field goal attempts this year being 3-point goals. How many points gained would you then deduct for the 15 more turnovers from the 2016-17 Josh?

I'm just asking the question here for purposes of your hypothetical scenario.

The only argument that makes any sense here is udballer's that Josh would play better defense, but I don't know how you can measure that opinion objectively. It's more of a subjective judgment.

Finally, this is a close question. Josh brings many great attributes to the floor. And you can see that the staff tried playing the three small guard line-up early in the year in order to get Josh on the floor. We just did not have a post player capable of holding down the middle along with Kam to make that line-up effective on a consistent basis.
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby JDetroitTitan » Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:53 pm

ptctitan wrote:JDetroitTitans - in your statistical model of putative W's, what adjustments have you made for the fact that as of this point in the schedule, the 2016-17 Josh would have 5 less assists and 15 more turnovers than the 2017-18 Jermaine Jr?


This is an easy one. None .I also didn't take in other factors like new coaching staff. Learning new plays, playing a press defense, the talent of players around him, the talent of player guarding him, the temperature of the gym, the type of shoes he was wearing.

ptctitan wrote:If Josh shot at the same rate per minutes played as he did in 2016-17 and played the same minutes this year as Jackson has played, then Josh would have taken 11 more shots this year than Jackson has taken. If he made 3 point shots and 2 point shots in the same distribution this season as last season, he would have scored 31 more points after 21 games as have been scored by Jackson this year for an additional 1.5 points per game from Josh on more shots taken.

In a perfectly linear model, the 2016-17 Josh would also have 60 assists and 57 turnovers vs Jackson's 65 assists and 42 turnovers after 21 games.

So, the 2016-17 Josh playing this year would take 11 more shots away from Corey and Kam than Jackson has taken this year. He would have scored 31 more points than Jackson, less the number of points lost from 15 more turnovers and 5 less assists. The five less assists are likely worth 12 points with 40% of our field goal attempts this year being 3-point goals. How many points gained would you then deduct for the 15 more turnovers from the 2016-17 Josh?


I didn't use a linear model for my analysis of the data because they are humans not robots. You need a high number of data point to really be able to build or see trends. I did 5 minute quick analysis of the data. After saying that I am not interested to play this game in answering this question because it is load and you probably already know the answer. If not let me know what the answer is after you find it out.

PTC my feeling is jjjr is for the future and needs to be develop. He should being injected in the rotation but have low minutes. If he comes out blazing then keep him out there. I believe in playing the hot hand. This way he plays a little and has time to reflect on what was going on, on the court. You can learn a lot from analysis your competitor. But if you are going to come up to me and say you have to men and one has two year of experience competing in division 1 basketball and better defense and the other one came from HS but competed at a high level. You know my answer. Now next year is a different story. They are very close to being interchangeable players but my problem is that it is taking away from two guys on the team that are better and need more minutes along with developing your bigs that you are going.
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Re: The point guard poll

Postby udballer » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:11 pm

ptctitan wrote:The only argument that makes any sense here is udballer's that Josh would play better defense, but I don't know how you can measure that opinion objectively.


You would measure it with your eyeballs. If you need some form of statistical analysis, you would simply need to count the number of times JJJ yells "ole'!" as the opposing guard blows past him. Subtract the number of Josh's ole's, and come up with the difference.

A similar comparison can be done looking at steals per minute.
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