MAAC chances

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MAAC chances

Postby GoTitans » Thu Apr 16, 2015 7:47 am

Here is a nice write-up on our chances to make the MAAC championship. They are pretty good, but not a done deal.
With just two conference games left, it’s time for a chart of the Titans’ possibilities in the tournament. With the league sporting seven members, this may be a bit of an exercise, so bear with me. I’ll come back to them in a moment, but at 4-0, Marist is the only team currently locked into the Championships. At 0-4, Manhattan is the only team eliminated.

Every team has two games remaining in the conference except Quinnipiac and Canisius. Fortunately, Detroit’s two remaining games are against the Golden Griffins and Siena, the two worst non-Manhattan teams in the league.

Team Current Record Week 1 Week 2
Marist 4-0 (9-3 ovr) @ Manhattan Siena
Quinnipiac 3-2 (4-7 ovr) Monmouth X
Detroit 2-2 (6-5 ovr) @ Siena Canisius
Monmouth 2-2 (5-6 ovr) @ Quinnipiac Manhattan
Siena 2-2 (5-6 ovr) Detroit @ Marist
Canisius 2-3 (2-10 ovr) X @ Detroit
Manhattan 0-4 (1-12 ovr) Marist @ Monmouth

Let’s make a couple assumptions here (I’ve done this in the past and it hasn’t worked out, but that’s life): Manhattan and Siena will both lose to Marist. Manhattan will lose to Monmouth. All other games are theoretically up for grabs.

If Detroit splits the final two games in either fashion (beat Siena but lose to Canisius, lose to Siena but beat Canisius), they will lose the tiebreaker to the team that they lose to, but cannot be passed by the team they beat (whether it’s Canisius, which would drop to 2-4, or Siena, which would finish at worst tied 3-3 with UDM and losing the tiebreaker).

With lost tiebreakers to Marist and Quinnipiac, the only thing that could keep them out of the conference tournament is Monmouth winning its final two games – upsetting Quinnipiac and doing the expected against Manhattan – to pass Detroit at 4-2, rendering UDM’s tiebreaker over them useless.
If Detroit loses both remaining games, they’re eliminated. They would have a 2-4 record, and both Siena and Canisius would finish with at least three conference wins (Marist and Quinnipiac are already at that mark).

Monmouth, with tiebreakers over both of those teams, would be in as long as they split the final two, unless Siena wins against Marist, in which case they’d bump the Hawks at 4-2. If Monmouth wins both of the final two, they’re in over Siena regardless of the outcome of that Saints-Red Foxes game.
If Detroit wins both of the final two games, they’d be in the tournament as the three-seed with a 4-2 record (at best tied with Marist and Quinnipiac, but down both tiebreakers).

Siena and Monmouth would be battling it out for the final spot. Siena would have to beat Marist to reach 3-3, and hope Monmouth loses both of its final two games (one of them is against Manhattan).

The verdict? Detroit is definitely in with a sweep of the final two games, and in decent shape with a split – though their bid would be out of their hands in that instance. Surprisingly, Monmouth has already done enough that they’d have a tough time not making the conference tournament. A split in the final two games should be enough, and in some scenarios, they don’t even need that.

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Re: MAAC chances

Postby titanmac » Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:30 am

so we have one home game left with canisius april 25th. anybody going to go?
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Re: MAAC chances

Postby GoTitans » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:08 am

I should be there mac.

Then over to the Big House for the UofM v. Penn State lax game at 6:00. Its Youth Lacrosse Day at UofM that day with local middle school teams playing from 11:20 a.m. until about 4:30pm. Then the UofM coaches talk to the young players. A pretty nice event. My 7th grade son should get to play in it next year. Unfortunately we will have to miss his 8th grade team playing this year since they play at 11:20. Playing in Michigan Stadium will be a lifelong memory for these boys (I remember playing b-ball at Calihan as a 6th grader, 37 years ago). UofM drew just over 3,000 for their game with OSU. Not bad. A tiny crowd in the Big House but that would likely fill their new lacrosse stadium once it gets built.
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Re: MAAC chances

Postby JimmyChitwood » Sat Apr 18, 2015 4:09 pm

Another great come from behind win against Sienna today. We out scored them 4-0 in the 4th quarter, with the game winner with 33 seconds left, to win 14-13. 7-5 on the year, 3-2 in conference.
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Re: MAAC chances

Postby Commissioner » Sat Apr 18, 2015 5:14 pm

JimmyChitwood wrote:Another great come from behind win against Sienna today. We out scored them 4-0 in the 4th quarter, with the game winner with 33 seconds left, to win 14-13. 7-5 on the year, 3-2 in conference.

Monmouth lost so titans clinch playoff spot, too.
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Re: MAAC chances

Postby Commissioner » Sun Apr 19, 2015 11:51 am

With yesterday's results, the MAAC playoffs take shape (and note my earlier post spoke a little too soon in suggesting the Titans had clinched a spot):

Marist will be seeded first and will host the tournament.
Quinnipiac will be seeded second.
If the Titans beat Canisius on Saturday at Titan Field, we will be seeded third; Monmouth will be seeded 4th if it beats last place Manhattan or if Siena loses to first place Marist; if Monmouth loses and Siena wins, Siena will be seeded 4th.
If Canisius beats the Titans, however, it could get confusing. If Monmouth loses, Canisius would be the #3 seed and Detroit #4. But if Monmouth wins, Monmouth will qualify for the playoffs, and Canisius will qualify if it beats the Titans by at least two goals; Detroit will qualify if it loses by just one goal.

Getting the third seed matters - I think we'd much rather play 2nd seeded Quinnipiac in the first round on a neutral field than unbeaten, first place Marist at Marist. Or maybe not, if you figure we're likely to have to beat Marist at Marist either way. With Monmouth playing winless Manhattan at Monmouth, they are likely to win. So it would be good to beat Canisius at home on senior day to clinch the third seed with style. That win would also clinch our first winning Lacrosse season.
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Re: MAAC chances

Postby JimmyChitwood » Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:24 am

I beginning to think this guy and the Commish are the same person:
More teams, but a little more simple than the Big Ten bracketology by virtue of a slightly more stratified league.

Marist, at 5-0, cannot be caught even in the unlikely event of a a loss to Siena.
Quinnipiac, at 4-2, is locked into the No. 2 seed. 3-2 Detroit is the only team that can catch them in the standings, but the Bobcats hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Manhattan, at 0-5, is eliminated from conference tourney contention.

Games
Away Home
Siena (2-3) Marist (5-0)
Canisius (2-3) Detroit (3-2)
Manhattan (0-5) Monmouth (2-3)
Bye: Quinnipiac (4-2)

Seeds 3 and 4 are still up for grabs. We’ll start with possible outcomes if Detroit wins, because that’s by far the simpler scenario. UDM is in with the three-seed, then…

Canisius is eliminated if either of Monmouth (likely over Manhattan) or Siena (unlikely over Marist) gets a victory.
If only one or the other of Monmouth and Siena achieves a win, that team gets the No. 4 seed.
Monmouth holds the tiebreaker over Siena, so in the event that both win, the Hawks make the tournament.
If all three squads lose, they’re in a mini-conference scenario tied at 2-4, which Monmouth wins with head-to-head victories over the other two.

If Detroit loses to Canisius, the situations can get pretty complicated, unless both Monmouth and Siena lose. That would drop them to 2-4, so Canisius is the three-seed (head-to-head victory) and Detroit is the four-seed with both sitting at 3-3.

If Canisius wins and at least one of Monmouth and Siena wins, we’re in a multi-way tie that will have some complicated mini-conference tiebreakers at play. There is one simple outcome (Siena wins, Monmouth loses):
Result 3-seed 4-seed Eliminated Eliminated
Siena win, Monmouth loss Canisius
(3-3, 2-0 mini-conference) Detroit
(3-3, 1-1 mini-conference) Siena (3-3, 0-2 mini-conference) Monmouth (2-4)

If Canisius, Monmouth, and Siena all win, we’re at a deadlock down the standings. The mini-conference would see Canisius, Detroit, and Monmouth at 2-1, with Siena at 0-3, eliminating the Saints, but seeing the resulting mini-conference deadlocked at 1-1 all around. Goal differential would come into play there. Current standings as follows:

Monmouth +2
Detroit +1
Canisius -3

The only relevant game to the mini-conference is the Detroit/Canisius contest, so goal differential in that game would be the deciding factor. Remember, this is onlt in the event of a Canisius win over Detroit, so…

Canisius wins by 1 goal. Monmouth plus-2, Detroit even, Canisius minus-2. Canisius eliminated on goal differential.
Canisius wins by 2 goals. Monmouth plus-2, Canisius minus-1, Detroit minus-1, Titans eliminated by virtue of head-to-head loss.
Canisius wins by 3-4 goals. Monmouth plus-2, Canisius even (or plus-1), Detroit minus-two (or minus-3)
Canisius wins by 5 goals. Monmouth plus-2 (wins head-to-head tiebreaker), Canisius plus-2, Detroit minus-4.
Canisius wins by 6-plus goals. Canisius plus-3 (or more), Monmouth plus-2, Detroit minus 5 (or more).

If Siena loses to Marist but the other two results (Canisius over Detroit and Monmouth over Manhattan) hold, the mini-conference is just set up one tiebreaker earlier, and the scenarios for goal differential remain the same.

So. Easy path for Detroit to make the conference tournament: Just win, baby (or lose by only one goal). Detroit is the three-seed with a win, and the four-seed (or totally eliminated) with a loss.

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As usual, it comes down to take care of it yourself by winning.
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